GeoMarketSignal

Since last year, I have been tracking U.S. Treasury yields, federal debt, commodity prices, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as parts of the same system. I began with a hypothesis. We had entered an era in which public investment and industrial policy could become crucial in the race for AI leadership. Semiconductors, data centers, power generation, transmission networks, and strategic manufacturing capacity would all require enormous investment. Higher public debt—and at least some inflationary pressure—appeared difficult to avoid.

I still remember November 2022. Rather than calculating valuations, I was drawing countless lines to catch the bottom on charts. After months of relentless declines, something in the market was beginning to change.