MACRO & DATA

GeoMarketSignal Macro & Data explains the economic indicators that move global markets — and, more importantly, how investors should interpret them.

We examine inflation, employment, wages, productivity, GDP, interest rates, liquidity and other key macroeconomic data beyond the headline numbers.

The goal is not simply to report the data, but to understand what they signal about growth, inflation, monetary policy and financial markets.

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LATEST MACRO & DATA RESEARCH

Europe's Hidden Bond Risk: What Happens When Eurozone Yields Stop Moving Together? >

Europe’s long-term borrowing costs are rising just as debt burdens, refinancing needs and fiscal pressures are diverging across countries. This analysis looks at why the next euro-area stress may emerge from a very different map than the last crisis.

Warsh Has Drawn His Line on Inflation — What Would Stop a September Rate Hike? >

Warsh has made his inflation threshold clearer, but the data are more complicated than the headline numbers suggest. This analysis asks what could actually stop a September rate hike.

Why the Fed Is Likely to Hold in September—and Why the 10-Year Treasury Could Still Rise >

The Fed may have reasons to wait in September, but long-term Treasury yields could still rise. This analysis separates the policy-rate outlook from the forces driving the 10-year yield.

How High Can U.S. Treasury Yields Go Before America Has to Push Back? >

Rising Treasury yields are increasing refinancing costs and federal interest expense. This analysis asks where the pressure threshold may lie — and whether AI productivity can improve America's room to respond.

Are Global Leading Indicators Rolling Over—and Can Asia Decouple? >

This research uses OECD Composite Leading Indicators to examine whether weakening G20 and European momentum will spread to Asia — or whether AI infrastructure, semiconductors and supply-chain realignment are creating a more resilient regional cycle.

Productivity, Employment and the Possibility of a Higher U.S. Speed Limit >

This research examines whether AI is beginning to reshape the relationship between output, employment, wages and inflation — and what that could mean for U.S. potential growth and Federal Reserve policy.

GMS MARKET GUIDES

Clear, search-focused explanations of the sector and stock questions investors ask most — designed to provide a quick answer and connect readers to deeper GMS research.

Why Do Bond Prices Fall When Interest Rates Rise? >

An existing bond’s coupon stays fixed when market yields rise. This Guide explains why its price falls, how the new buyer’s yield adjusts, and what holding to maturity does—and does not—change.

Why Can Treasury Yields Rise When the Fed Cuts Rates? >

The Fed controls short-term policy rates, but it does not directly set long-term Treasury yields. This guide explains why the 10-year yield can still rise after a Fed rate cut — and which market forces can drive that divergence.

What Does a 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield Mean for Stocks? >

A 5% 10-year Treasury yield raises the hurdle rate for stocks by increasing discount rates, financing costs and competition from bonds. This guide explains what that means for equity valuations and investors.