GeoMarketSignal

  Europe can remain one of the world’s richest regions while becoming less central to how the global economy grows, finances innovation and exercises power. The phrase “Europe in decline” is usually where useful analysis goes to die.

For years, investors have heard the same story: American manufacturing is coming back. This writing explores and examines its phase.  America’s factory-building boom was real. Broad manufacturing output was not. The evidence points to a narrower, high-tech industrial revival. Semiconductor fabs are rising in Arizona, Texas, and Ohio. Battery plants have spread across the Midwest and South. Federal incentives have helped mobilize large private investment commitments in industries increasingly viewed as strategically important. And the construction boom was real. U.S. manufacturing construction spending more than tripled from its 2019 average to its 2024 peak—even before accounting for factory equipment that construction statistics do not capture. Yet seven years into this experiment, an uncomfortable question remains: Where is the manufacturing boom? From the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2026, U.S. manufacturing output grew at an annualized rate of just 0.2%,...

I still remember November 2022. Rather than calculating valuations, I was drawing countless lines to catch the bottom on charts. After months of relentless declines, something in the market was beginning to change.

  What NVIDIA’s August 26 Earnings Could Reveal About the Sustainability of the AI Investment Cycle NVIDIA will report its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results on August 26, 2026. For a company that has repeatedly broken revenue records, another earnings beat would hardly be surprising. NVIDIA has exceeded its own revenue guidance quarter after quarter, while demand for AI computing infrastructure has continued to expand at an extraordinary pace. But I believe this earnings report matters for a different reason. The question is no longer simply whether AI demand exists. The more important question is whether the earnings being generated by the AI ecosystem can continue growing fast enough to justify the enormous amount of capital required to build it, particularly when the price of that capital is rising. There are therefore two questions I will be asking when NVIDIA reports. Can NVIDIA outrun the rising cost of capital? And, more importantly: Can NVIDIA’s customers earn enough on AI...